Many developed countries have ratified the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gases that cause global warming, but global warming is continuing rather than being suppressed. As it is believed that global warming cannot be erected by human hands if it progresses beyond a certain period, there have been reports that it has entered a turning point of such warming in 2019. Is global warming truly irreversible, or is there any possible solution in the future?
Many news related to global warming are reported, and the worst records in history, such as heat waves and glacial melting, are being updated every year. The rapid global warming known for several decades is due to the emission of greenhouse gases. However, despite knowing the cause, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted in 2019 increased by 50% compared to 2000, and the amount of greenhouse gas emissions is on the rise.
Why can’t mankind stop emitting greenhouse gases? The carbon dioxide emitted by mankind is greatly affected by four factors: population size, economic growth, energy economic efficiency, and emissions per energy. If we look at the population size, of course, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted is proportional to the population. According to a UN survey, the global population is projected to increase by 40% between 2020 and 2100. What is known to be effective in curbing population growth is investment in medical care, contraceptives and education in developing countries. However, even with a large investment, it will take decades for the low fertility effect to appear. A lot of carbon dioxide is emitted during these decades.
Next is economic growth. As living standards rise and science and technology advance, carbon dioxide emissions increase. For example, one US programmer emits more carbon dioxide than 50 Ugandan agricultural workers. Global wealth continues to grow and, according to the United Nations, the proportion of people deprived of most of the essential necessities of life, such as food and safe drinking water, sanitation, health, housing, education and information, as defined by the United Nations as extreme poverty, is unprecedented in history. too small to be seen.
Economic growth is now a global slogan that does not depend on the global political system. It is unlikely that developed countries will give up on economic growth quickly, and developing countries will continue to pursue economic growth because they want to be richer. As economic growth continues, carbon dioxide emissions increase. Although there are indications of technologies and policies that do not increase carbon dioxide emissions despite economic growth, they have not yet been put into practical use.
For this reason, factors such as population size and economic growth have a significant impact on carbon dioxide emissions. Humanity must convert an increase in carbon dioxide emissions into a decrease. What can be a solution are two factors: energy economic efficiency and emissions per energy.
Energy economic efficiency is an indicator of how efficiently energy is used. For example, suppose a Brazilian food stall uses coal to cook and a French street food uses a nuclear-powered IH stove to cook. In this case, IH stoves powered by nuclear power are much more efficient than coal. As technology advances, the power required can be reduced. Developing efficient technologies and integrating societies is one of the most important ways to reduce the global dependence on carbon dioxide.
The potential for efficient technology development is limitless, from power consumption reduction by AI, electricity to transportation and industrial fields, and sustainable concrete production. However, even with the development of efficient technology, it is impossible to achieve zero carbon dioxide emissions. The reason science and technology cannot achieve zero carbon dioxide emissions is because of the rebound effect, the law that the more efficient is used more. Although the overall efficiency was improved through the rebound effect, the usage did not decrease as initially predicted, and there are many cases where the overall efficiency improved but the usage increased.
While overall efficiency has increased, a typical example of increased usage is airplanes. Although the cost per distance decreases year by year, the number of travelers continues to increase year after year, so consumption resources are increasing.
The second reason science and technology cannot zero carbon dioxide emissions is the indirect rebound effect. When something is streamlined, you bet the cost of that item on something else. For example, if you buy a fuel-efficient car, you spend more on driving and traveling because you cut fuel costs. As a result, consumption resources may increase. From a consumption resource point of view, it might be better to keep driving a car with poor fuel economy.
The third reason that science and technology cannot achieve zero carbon dioxide emissions is because of a decline in the return on investment. As the efficiency progresses, the cost also increases, so the speed of efficiency decreases. Also, in many science and technology, humanity has achieved a certain level of efficiency.
Therefore, it is not possible to achieve zero carbon dioxide emission by energy economic efficiency alone. So, what is important is the amount of emissions per energy. Carbon dioxide emissions are largely dependent on what kind of energy is used. Coal power generation, for example, emits more carbon dioxide than solar power generation. Simply put, burning fossil fuels increases carbon dioxide emissions.
However, the option of not using fossil fuels at all is currently impossible. Doing this will cause a lot of problems overnight. At present, we cannot even come up with alternative means to curb the consumption of fossil fuels.
What must now be done is to extend the lifespan of existing nuclear power plants, reduce subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, and increase fines every year with strict fines for the natural energy industry and carbon emissions, creating strong incentives for decarbonization. In addition, it is impossible to achieve zero carbon dioxide emissions without developing new technologies.
New innovations expected are carbon dioxide capture and authoring devices, next-generation nuclear power generation, and new batteries that will revolutionize natural energy storage. But innovation takes time. Over time, the global climate may become too late.
Carbon dioxide emissions increase every year. Addressing this challenge requires action as well as technological innovation. The less fossil fuel consumption, the longer the deadline. Construction of new coal-fired power plants will also be halted. Today, billions of people live on fossil fuels. This phenomenon cannot be changed overnight. But you have to do something as soon as possible.