Problems that can arise when farmland is expanded due to warming

Earth is warming. Depending on the location, while heat becomes a natural enemy of agriculture, there are also regions where new farming is possible. Farming is possible in cold northern Alberta, Canada, and Russia plans to reverse warming to expand farmland to the north. New England, in the northeastern United States, may triple farmland by 2030.

However, new research suggests that expanding farmland to the north can accelerate the climate crisis by releasing large amounts of environmentally damaging carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. A paper published in the SCI journal PLOS One concludes that farmland releases 177 gigatons of carbon dioxide off the north coast. Even if the United States continues its current emissions over a century, it is said that difficult amounts are released.

The research team points out that these results tell us how carefully we should approach when developing new farmland and how we should care about the negative impacts on the environment. The research team conducted a simulation using 17 patterns of global climate model, and found that if carbon dioxide emissions proceed at the current rate, the temperature will rise by 4.8 degrees by the end of this century. Through this, farmland of up to 24 million km ² will be cultivated at high latitudes and highlands by 2080. Major crops such as wheat, corn and soybeans can be harvested on new farmland. This is the result of using carbon dioxide emissions according to the worst-case scenario, but if warming proceeds even in a scenario with low emissions, farmland can be expanded to a scale of millions of km ² .

It is not a bad thing to run agriculture as humans cannot live without eating. It is estimated that by 2050, the world’s population will exceed 10 billion. In order for such a population to live, food production must increase by 70%. The question is how to produce it. Dust brings carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, but when new farmland is cultivated, it releases carbon dioxide. It is feared that this will affect climate change on a large scale.

Among the worst patterns, farmland expansion in tropical mountainous regions may adversely affect biodiversity. New farmland expansion is envisioned in areas with a variety of living organisms and rare birds, and agriculture relies on machinery that uses fertilizers and fossil fuels. In addition, agricultural by-products that are harmful to the local natural environment can be released, which can lead to pollution in the downstream areas of rivers. Agriculture in high mountains may destroy the drinking water on which 1.8 billion people depend.

Each of these adverse effects is terrible, but the combination of the climate crisis, biodiversity loss, and water pollution can make synergies more serious. Recently published research has raised concerns that these threats can affect each other and increase problems or lead to system collapse on a global scale. There are policies to prevent negative effects such as banning development in areas rich in carbon dioxide or reforestation in areas that have lost their aptitude as farmland, but it may be necessary to establish a proper policy to prevent farmland development from becoming a new problem. Related information can be found here .