As the semiconductor shortage worsens… Lead time over 20 weeks

According to a study by Susquehanna Financial Group, the lead time from ordering semiconductors to delivery exceeded 20 weeks. The lead time of more than 20 weeks is the highest since Susquahana started monitoring the semiconductor industry in 2017, and it can be seen that the semiconductor shortage has worsened that much.

As a result of the survey, the average time required for all semiconductors is 20.2 weeks in July 2021. 8 days more than in June of the same year. According to the survey, the shortage of semiconductors used in automobiles and home appliances has been worsening since July 2021, with lead times of 26.5 weeks. Considering that the lead time for semiconductors typically used for automobiles and home appliances was 6 to 9 weeks, 26.5 weeks is an unusually long period.

TSMC, a large semiconductor foundry, is receiving strong requests from automakers to provide production lines. However, TSMC says it is fully operating its existing production capacity and cannot provide an automobile manufacturing line until it cuts off other customers.

According to the report, it is difficult to receive orders for semiconductors, and manufacturers speculated that they would overestimate the expected sales volume in order to secure enough semiconductors for the time being. However, it is pointed out that the short-term shortage may worsen because semiconductor foundries have limited ways to know what the demand for a particular product is. This is because if a company makes an excessive reservation, the order volume is expected to drop sharply due to excessive inventory sales by the time the semiconductor shortage is resolved.

But reactions to what happens to CPU and GPU shortages have been different. According to one report, it is good news for those who have been waiting for a shortage of GPUs, and CPUs and GPUs are made with the latest process, and supply is expected to increase as the foundry expands its factories. On the other hand, if the lead time worsens, it is expected that CPU and GPU prices will rise further in the future as demand will increase as the holiday season nears the end of 2021.

According to the report, semiconductor lead times have been reduced due to power management that controls power flow, such as smartphones and solar power generation, but it is nonetheless predicted that the impact of the semiconductor shortage on the automobile industry will significantly lose more than $100 billion in sales. Related information can be found here.