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In order to curb the spread of Corona 19 infection, it is recommended to refrain from events and avoid contact with people such as school closures. Why is it important to avoid contact with people as much as possible? There is a simulation that reproduces the spread of infection by contact, attracting attention.
It is pointed out that the spread of infection caused by Corona 19 increases exponentially. Washington Post reporter Harry Stevens points out that if the spread of infection continues to increase exponentially, the number of infected people in the United States could surpass 100 million by May 2020.
In the simulation, light blue is a healthy person who is not sick, and red is a sick person. Purple refers to a person who has recovered after a certain period of time after infection. Simulating the spread of infection in a space where 200 people move freely under the condition that the sick person contacts a healthy person and spreads the infection in a space where 200 people move freely.At first, the infection spreads by contact, and the number of sick people increases to more than 100 at once. do.
Looking at the trend of recovering people, healthy people, and sick people over time, by the time the recovered people appear, everyone is infected. In the simulation that reproduces the state imposed on forced quarantine and quarantine, such as those entering the country due to infection, the simulation is performed under the assumption that only one of the quarantined people has an infected person. The left side of the double line in the middle means isolation.
The quarantine is negative on the test, so if the quarantine is lifted, the isolated person has some recoverers, but some are not negative, so the infection spreads slowly but gradually. Eventually, everyone gets infected. It can be seen that isolation alone cannot contain the infection.
Even if it is desirable to avoid contact with people as much as possible, they say that the spread of infection is inevitable because some people have to go out for work or shopping, or continue to go out after being optimistic about the situation.
What would happen if 50 out of 200 people continued to exercise and 150 people did not move, so as to avoid contact with people as much as possible. Avoiding human contact as much as possible slows the infection rate very slowly. Finally, the total number of infected people converges to around 150, and healthy people remain.
If 150 out of 200 people do not move, and 1 out of 8 out of 50 people move randomly, if the simulation is conducted in a thorough state that avoids contact with humans as much as possible, the spread of the infection will naturally appear smoothly. The total number of infected people converges to around 70 or less than half, and the infection is blocked.
Of course, the simulation is simple and is different from actual diffusion. However, the infection is spreading through contact with close people, such as family or work, and the possibility of spreading the infection to many people like a simulation is high. Simulation images and related information can be found here .
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